蘋果盈警股價暴跌

蘋果iPhone銷售疲弱已成為不爭的事實!蘋果行政總TIM Cook周三收市後向股東發信,公布調低第一財季的收入預測至840億美元,遠低於早前公布的890美元至930美元。主要原因包括中國對iPhone需求轉弱、網絡商減少對iPhone的補貼、美元強勢以及消費者以免費更換iPhone電池來延長iPhone使用時間,都令iPhone銷量低於預期。但公司亦預期在個別已發展市場,如美國、加拿大及德國等,則預期會創下收入新高。

蘋果週三收盤微漲0.11%,盤中一度跌2%,蘋果股票在宣佈消息前的盤後交易中被暫停,20分鐘後恢復交易時股價下跌了7%。蘋果將收入預期從此前的890億美元下調至840億美元。該公司將毛利率從38%至38.5%降至38%左右。

蘋果CEO庫克稱,此前蘋果在中國市場的需求意外放緩,並且iPhone升級減少。第一季度業績同時受到宏觀經濟和蘋果特有因素的影響。部分新興市場經濟疲軟對公司的影響比此前預計的大。在部分發達市場的iPhone升級不如預期的強勁。

蘋果將下調財測歸咎於多種因素,包括iPhone收入低於預期。蘋果表示,收入低於預期的情況「主要發生在大中華區」,但也表示,在其他國家新款iPhone的升級「沒有我們預期的那麼強勁」。

庫克在信中說,運營商補貼減少、美元走強導致價格上漲、電池更換成本降低,這些都是導致iPhone本季度升級疲弱的原因。

庫克表示:「如果你看看我們的業績,你會發現,我們的虧空超過100%來自iPhone,而且主要來自大中華地區。」

儘管下調了業績預期,但庫克在致投資者的信中確實指出了一些增長領域。他說,蘋果的設備安裝基礎比去年增加了1億部。蘋果一直在推廣其不斷增長的安裝基礎,以表明它可以通過iCloud存儲和蘋果音樂等訂閱服務,從每一項使用中榨取更多收入。據說該公司還在考慮通過蘋果新聞和電視應用程序推出新的訂閱產品。

我們有一些正在進行的項目,庫克表示。「我們不會坐等宏觀經濟發生變化。」我希望如此,我確實很樂觀,但我們將真正深入地關注我們能夠控制的事情。

他認為仍有望實現在2016–2020年間將服務業務翻倍的目標。預計將在未來實現淨現金中性。我們相信在中國的業務有「光明的未來」。預計這一季度結束時將擁有1300億美元的淨現金流。

同時庫克也說,非iPhone業務對新興市場的風險胃納較小。可穿戴設備在12月份這一季度同比增長50%,Apple和AirPods在假日購物者中廣受歡迎。預計在包括美國、加拿大、德國、意大利、西班牙、荷蘭和韓國等數個發達國家的12月份季度營收將是創紀錄的。

人們知道iPhone產品發佈時間的差異會影響到我們的年度比較。Apple Watch系列4和iPad Pro的銷售很大程度上、甚至整體性地在第一季度受抑;同期,AirPods和MacBook Air的銷售情況也受抑。公司在大約60天前討論過第一季度指引事宜,當時就知道第一季度會受到宏觀經濟形勢和蘋果具體因素的影響。廣泛影響iPhone表現的因素包括消費者正在適應一個運營商補貼減少的世界。影響iPhone表現的因素還包括一些客戶利用iPhone電池更換價格大幅下降的優勢。

以下為Tim Cook致股東的信:

January 2, 2019

To Apple investors:

Today we are revising our guidance for Apple’s fiscal 2019 first quarter, which ended on December 29. We now expect the following:

Revenue of approximately $84 billion

Gross margin of approximately 38 percent

Operating expenses of approximately $8.7 billion

Other income/(expense) of approximately $550 million

Tax rate of approximately 16.5 percent before discrete items

We expect the number of shares used in computing diluted EPS to be approximately 4.77 billion.

Based on these estimates, our revenue will be lower than our original guidance for the quarter, with other items remaining broadly in line with our guidance.

While it will be a number of weeks before we complete and report our final results, we wanted to get some preliminary information to you now. Our final results may differ somewhat from these preliminary estimates.

When we discussed our Q1 guidance with you about 60 days ago, we knew the first quarter would be impacted by both macroeconomic and Apple-specific factors. Based on our best estimates of how these would play out, we predicted that we would report slight revenue growth year-over-year for the quarter. As you may recall, we discussed four factors:

First, we knew the different timing of our iPhone launches would affect our year-over-year compares. Our top models, iPhone XS and iPhone XS Max, shipped in Q4’18 – placing the channel fill and early sales in that quarter, whereas last year iPhone X shipped in Q1’18, placing the channel fill and early sales in the December quarter. We knew this would create a difficult compare for Q1’19, and this played out broadly in line with our expectations.

Second, we knew the strong US dollar would create foreign exchange headwinds and forecasted this would reduce our revenue growth by about 200 basis points as compared to the previous year. This also played out broadly in line with our expectations.

Third, we knew we had an unprecedented number of new products to ramp during the quarter and predicted that supply constraints would gate our sales of certain products during Q1. Again, this also played out broadly in line with our expectations. Sales of Apple Watch Series 4 and iPad Pro were constrained much or all of the quarter. AirPods and MacBook Air were also constrained.

Fourth, we expected economic weakness in some emerging markets. This turned out to have a significantly greater impact than we had projected.

In addition, these and other factors resulted in fewer iPhone upgrades than we had anticipated.

These last two points have led us to reduce our revenue guidance. I’d like to go a bit deeper on both.

Emerging Market Challenges

While we anticipated some challenges in key emerging markets, we did not foresee the magnitude of the economic deceleration, particularly in Greater China. In fact, most of our revenue shortfall to our guidance, and over 100 percent of our year-over-year worldwide revenue decline, occurred in Greater China across iPhone, Mac and iPad.

China’s economy began to slow in the second half of 2018. The government-reported GDP growth during the September quarter was the second lowest in the last 25 years. We believe the economic environment in China has been further impacted by rising trade tensions with the United States. As the climate of mounting uncertainty weighed on financial markets, the effects appeared to reach consumers as well, with traffic to our retail stores and our channel partners in China declining as the quarter progressed. And market data has shown that the contraction in Greater China’s smartphone market has been particularly sharp.

Despite these challenges, we believe that our business in China has a bright future. The iOS developer community in China is among the most innovative, creative and vibrant in the world. Our products enjoy a strong following among customers, with a very high level of engagement and satisfaction. Our results in China include a new record for Services revenue, and our installed base of devices grew over the last year. We are proud to participate in the Chinese marketplace.

iPhone

Lower than anticipated iPhone revenue, primarily in Greater China, accounts for all of our revenue shortfall to our guidance and for much more than our entire year-over-year revenue decline. In fact, categories outside of iPhone (Services, Mac, iPad, Wearables/Home/Accessories) combined to grow almost 19 percent year-over-year.

While Greater China and other emerging markets accounted for the vast majority of the year-over-year iPhone revenue decline, in some developed markets, iPhone upgrades also were not as strong as we thought they would be. While macroeconomic challenges in some markets were a key contributor to this trend, we believe there are other factors broadly impacting our iPhone performance, including consumers adapting to a world with fewer carrier subsidies, US dollar strength-related price increases, and some customers taking advantage of significantly reduced pricing for iPhone battery replacements.

Many Positive Results in the December Quarter

While it’s disappointing to revise our guidance, our performance in many areas showed remarkable strength in spite of these challenges.

Our installed base of active devices hit a new all-time high – growing by more than 100 million units in 12 months. There are more Apple devices being used than ever before, and it’s a testament to the ongoing loyalty, satisfaction and engagement of our customers.

Also, as I mentioned earlier, revenue outside of our iPhone business grew by almost 19 percent year-over-year, including all-time record revenue from Services, Wearables and Mac. Our non-iPhone businesses have less exposure to emerging markets, and the vast majority of Services revenue is related to the size of the installed base, not current period sales.

Services generated over $10.8 billion in revenue during the quarter, growing to a new quarterly record in every geographic segment, and we are on track to achieve our goal of doubling the size of this business from 2016 to 2020.

Wearables grew by almost 50 percent year-over-year, as Apple Watch and AirPods were wildly popular among holiday shoppers; launches of MacBook Air and Mac mini powered the Mac to year-over-year revenue growth and the launch of the new iPad Pro drove iPad to year-over-year double-digit revenue growth.

We also expect to set all-time revenue records in several developed countries, including the United States, Canada, Germany, Italy, Spain, the Netherlands and Korea. And, while we saw challenges in some emerging markets, others set records, including Mexico, Poland, Malaysia and Vietnam.

Finally, we also expect to report a new all-time record for Apple’s earnings per share.

Looking Ahead

Our profitability and cash flow generation are strong, and we expect to exit the quarter with approximately $130 billion in net cash. As we have stated before, we plan to become net-cash neutral over time.

As we exit a challenging quarter, we are as confident as ever in the fundamental strength of our business. We manage Apple for the long term, and Apple has always used periods of adversity to re-examine our approach, to take advantage of our culture of flexibility, adaptability and creativity, and to emerge better as a result.

Most importantly, we are confident and excited about our pipeline of future products and services. Apple innovates like no other company on earth, and we are not taking our foot off the gas.

We can’t change macroeconomic conditions, but we are undertaking and accelerating other initiatives to improve our results. One such initiative is making it simple to trade in a phone in our stores, finance the purchase over time, and get help transferring data from the current to the new phone. This is not only great for the environment, it is great for the customer, as their existing phone acts as a subsidy for their new phone, and it is great for developers, as it can help grow our installed base.

This is one of a number of steps we are taking to respond. We can make these adjustments because Apple’s strength is in our resilience, the talent and creativity of our team, and the deeply held passion for the work we do every day.

Expectations are high for Apple because they should be. We are committed to exceeding those expectations every day.

That has always been the Apple way, and it always will be.

Tim

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A columnist in political development in Greater China region, technology and gadgets, media industry, parenting and other interesting topics.

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