柯文哲支持度領先藍綠人選

民進黨中執會決議,總統初選納入台北市長柯文哲和高雄市長韓國瑜,且民調採取手機和市話各50%。今天美麗島電子報民調出爐,可看見在納入柯文哲的狀況下,柯文哲無論對比韓國瑜、賴清德或是韓國瑜、蔡英文,亦或是和郭台銘、賴清德對比,或是郭台銘,蔡英文對比時,均為民調第一名。

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假設國民黨總統初選為韓國瑜勝出,柯文哲在對比韓國瑜和賴清德的狀況下,以31.6%的民調勝過韓國瑜的28.4%,賴清德的23.4%。而柯文哲在對比韓國瑜和蔡英文的狀況下,仍以29.3%贏韓國瑜的27.9%,和蔡英文的26.9%。

假設國民黨總統初選為郭台銘勝出,柯文哲在對比郭台銘和賴清德的狀況下,以32.6%贏郭台銘的22.1%和賴清德的24.9%,柯文哲在對比郭台銘和蔡英文的狀況下,以30.4%贏郭台銘的23.8%,和蔡英文的26.4%。

假設朾文哲不跑出來選,以藍綠對決為格局,則賴清德及蔡英文在對韓國瑜均會佔優,但領先幅度僅為五個百分點以下,其實仍有進步的空間。

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A columnist in political development in Greater China region, technology and gadgets, media industry, parenting and other interesting topics.

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